Germany Solved Polish Cryptographic Systems
The cryptographic systems of the Polish Government in Exile for the most part had been solved in Germany. Consequently, insight was obtained into the thinking and the plans of influential English offices. It could be seen that the British took the invasion seriously for only a short time. In any case, they were ready to accept it and were resolved, in case it succeeded, to continue the struggle from overseas.
The fleet was to go to America and the struggle would be organized anew from there. Africa was to constitute the starting point for the attack on the Axis Powers. There were similar revelations in the intercepted traffic of diplomats representing other nations.
The Far East
The German plan aimed, by threatening British possessions in the Far East, to force Britain to change her military dispositions. The idea appeared very clever and in those days Ribbentrop was considered in Germany a very competent and clever diplomat. However, he had neglected one important factor: should Japan try to disturb the balance of power in the Far East, this would inevitably arouse opposition in the U.S.A., and relations between the two countries were already tense due to the conflict in China. When the Japanese raised ‘this objection, Ribbentrop assured them that the U.S. A would not be in a position to employ its whole strength against Japan because Germany would, in case of conflict, declare war on the U.S. A.; this would mean for both the U.S. A. and Great Britain a splitting up of forces, and the Americans would be too weak to threaten Japan seriously.
Germany had Intelligence on America War Production Effort
At that moment, what Ribbentrop said was valid, but one factor was omitted: in September 1940 we had from intercepted traffic a fair picture of war production in the U.S. A. with production estimates for the two ensuing years. Compared with German production these figures were enormous. Hitler and Ribbentrop said these figures were pure pipe dreams. What induced them to take such an attitude is not known to me. The figures were not based on propaganda speeches but were carefully compiled from authentic sources. On this occasion Hitler displayed a characteristic trait; he would believe only what accorded with his ideas, everything else he rejected abruptly.